With about 30% of the world’s mineral reserves, including 70% of global cobalt production, significant shares of manganese and emerging lithium deposits in Zimbabwe, Namibia and Ghana, Africa is the minerals player the rest of the world has its eyes on. Demand for these minerals is projected to skyrocket, growing up to more than fivefold by 2040 as solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles and grid-scale storage systems proliferate. 

However, without scientific and technical capacity to develop these mineral resources, Africa risks remaining a supplier of raw materials rather than a driver of the energy transition. Accordingly, the continent’s leverage in this transition will depend less on geology as destiny, and more on geology as science. 

Geographical knowledge as negotiating power 
For many years, many African economies have participated in global mineral markets primarily as exporters of raw ore. The deeper challenge, however, lies upstream: limited investment in geological surveys, laboratory infrastructure, data systems, and advanced geoscience education. Many national geological surveys continue to operate with outdated mapping technologies and insufficient high-resolution geophysical data. Without comprehensive subsurface mapping, countries negotiate mining contracts without full knowledge of what lies beneath their territory. This asymmetry of geological knowledge weakens fiscal regimes, royalty structures, and long-term planning. 

“It is very important that African governments prioritize and elevate geological capacity building because it is part of the critical scarce skills and human capital of a country that can contribute to better control of critical mineral resources,” explains Professor Lise Korsten, President of the African Academy of Sciences.  

Building geological capacity means investing in airborne geophysical surveys, mineral laboratories, geospatial analytics platforms, and training a new generation of African geoscientists who can model deposits, assess environmental risk, and evaluate value chains. Without these, the continent’s mineral wealth remains informationally mediated by external actors.

Colonial legacies of knowledge ownership 
Africa’s geological knowledge systems were historically designed to serve extraction, not empowerment. During the colonial period, geological surveys were established primarily to identify exportable resources for imperial economies. Data, samples, and technical expertise often flowed outward to European capitals and multinational firms rather than into African universities and public institutions. 

This created a structural imbalance in who produces knowledge and who owns it. Exploration data generated by foreign firms frequently remains proprietary for extended periods. Technical modeling is conducted offshore. African universities are rarely positioned at the center of mineral innovation ecosystems. 

Reversing this pattern requires policy shifts: mandating that exploration data be lodged in national geoscience databases after defined confidentiality periods; investing in open-access geological repositories managed by African institutions; and linking geological data governance to broader digital sovereignty and open science movements. Knowledge must circulate within African research institutions if mineral governance is to move beyond extraction.

Enhancing education systems  
If scientific expertise is strategic infrastructure, then universities and research institutes are its foundation. Professor Felix Toteu, Vice-President of the African Academy of Sciences, argues that sustainable transformation of Africa’s mineral wealth depends on updating education systems to reflect continental mineral realities. 

This means strengthening departments of geology, mining engineering, geochemistry and geospatial sciences across African universities. It also means integrating mineral economics, environmental science, and policy training so that graduates can operate across the full value chain – from exploration to beneficiation and industrial processing. 

Several countries are demonstrating what this shift can look like. Botswana has invested heavily in geological surveying and technical expertise to strengthen its negotiating capacity in the diamond sector. Ghana has modernized its geological mapping capabilities to attract responsible investment in gold and emerging lithium deposits while improving regulatory oversight. 

At the continental level, the African Union’s Pan-African Geological Surveys Organization is working toward harmonizing geological data standards across borders. The African Minerals Development Centre advocates value-addition strategies that require deep scientific understanding of mineral processing and industrial pathways. These initiatives signal recognition that mineral competitiveness is inseparable from scientific capability. 

Looking ahead 
The clean energy transition has exposed a paradox: Africa sits at the center of future supply chains, yet often at the margins of technological design and value capture. This gap is fundamentally epistemic. Whoever controls subsoil data, modeling software, and advanced mineral processing knowledge controls pricing power and industrial direction. 

Strategic investment in high-resolution surveys, laboratory networks, and regional centers of geoscience excellence could allow African states to negotiate from a position of strength. Shared cross-border research platforms can compensate for individual capacity gaps while reinforcing continental bargaining power. 

“By sharing resources and expertise, African countries can better govern subsoil data and improve mining sector governance,” Toteu notes. Cross-border collaboration transforms fragmented national efforts into collective leverage. 

The global scramble for critical minerals risks repeating extractive patterns of the past. But it also presents an opportunity: to rebuild scientific institutions, democratize mineral knowledge, and reposition Africa from a passive supplier of ore to an architect of value chains. 

Original article published on ISC website here.